Hi Guys, it has been talk of the town at every nick and corner that lot of uncertainty is there everywhere in society. Everybody from a student, businessmen, a government official, a farmer, a shopkeeper is experiencing an atmosphere of uncertainty.
I attended a Webnier where discussion on crisis management happened and I realized that uncertainty may arise with crises or without crises. As I had mentioned in one of my article that decision making is a rational process that can help to manage uncertainty as a human being has always had some choices to operate even in very grim scenarios. Likewise, there are some basic steps to convert uncertainty into certainty.
1. Just explore the prevailing scenario thoroughly and try to identify and find out different scenarios from the best one to the worst one which is causing uncertainty or can cause uncertainty.
2. Write down each scenario with an available option. Options of one scenario may be more than many but the line of action of each scenario with the best probable solution shall be made ready.
3. Now you have evaluated each option from good to worst has been studied and quantified to the nearest possible damage and plan of action to deal with each damage mechanism to be ready with you.
4. You need to have a forward path for each scenarios keeping in view that plan like you need to survive for 1000 years but being ready to face complete disaster if come you in worst shape may be loss of business temporarily or permanently, maybe non-availability of liquidity for your business, non-availability of manpower due to sudden return back to their hometown or maybe some more damaging scenarios.
5. Now with the above exercise from step no. 1 to 4 all uncertain scenarios now become known and familiar with the best possible scenarios and their action plan.
6. Scenarios for each profession may be different from each other but all the scenarios from good to worst need to be studied and worked upon to face the same in this eventually.
Now with this exercise, all the uncertain aspects of business scenarios have been worked out and the best way forward to tackle the same can be planned and now become known or certain to you.
With this systematic approach, all uncertainty with reference to specific business or avocation can be well predicted and plan to tackle the same is ready.
For example, the factory which is getting a profit of 20 lacs per month is not generating any profit but has to distribute a salary payment of workers and fixed expenses including bank installment an amount equal to INR 15 lacs and considering the worst-case scenario of lockdown till June 2020. Then the owner of the entity needs to inform bankers and all stockholders in advance so that they in term be ready to face that situation. He has to make a plan keeping all stakeholders in loop that this is proposed forward path and all are in sync for the same.
The communication path of each eventuality shall be clear and well envisaged to finalized the forward path. Lack of communication breeds uncertainty so all stakeholders need to be informed accordingly to avoid uncertainty.
So, at last, it depends upon individual or company or organization how they anticipate all scenarios and makes a plan to tackle best scenarios to the worst scenario if you are not competent enough then take the help of some friend or third party agencies which can guide you the way forward.
